It is an approach based on a thorough examination of complex, underlying issues that will enable a higher level of analysis. And if political actors are willing to make decisions based on validated data, considering the recommendations of an expert community that has a deep understanding of the region’s context throughout all periods, the region can expect not only a high-quality post-war reconstruction but also sustainable and effective development.
The quantitative survey involved 1010 respondents, including: 110 current residents of Donetsk Region; 400 individuals who relocated to other regions of Ukraine between 2014 and 2021; 400 individuals who moved to other regions of Ukraine since the beginning of 2022; and 100 former residents of Donetsk Region who emigrated abroad. The study was conducted in groups divided by age, gender, and geography: youth under 30 years old, adults aged 30-50, elderly people aged 50+, people living in Donetsk Region, and those who relocated to other regions of Ukraine or abroad, both after 2014 and after 2022.
Focus group interviews were conducted in the following groups: the general population; local authorities; representatives from the public sector (educators, healthcare professionals, and others); public organizations and media representatives; urban planners, architects, and other specialists involved in regional development; self-employed individuals, entrepreneurs, and representatives of small and medium-sized businesses.
The full study is available here.
The majority in all target groups primarily identify themselves as citizens of Ukraine: 70% of all respondents expressed this identity. Residents of the region primarily see themselves as citizens of Ukraine, while those living within the region most often emphasize a local identity. Refugees living abroad predominantly consider themselves citizens of Europe.
Firstly, 9% of all respondents consider themselves residents of the Donetsk region, with this identity more frequently expressed by current residents (15%) of the region, and least typically by those who left the region relatively long ago (IDPs after 2014, 6%). Thus, we continue to see the destruction of the Russian myth of the “people of Donbas”.
“Our research has shown that even after many years away from their home region, most people still feel part of the Donetsk region. This is especially important in the context of forced migration — even those who left before 2022, after a long time in other cities, have not lost their connection with their native place. But it is significant to understand that this is not just an attachment to the region as a whole — people identify themselves with specific cities and communities,” adds Liubov Rakovytsia.
The majority of respondents feel a strong connection to their local area and consider themselves representatives of the Donetsk region. This sentiment is most pronounced among current residents of the region and those who have recently moved to other regions of Ukraine. Among IDPs who left after 2014, more than half feel connected to Donetsk region, and among those who emigrated abroad, the figure rises to 63%.
The focus group study revealed that most participants primarily identify themselves as residents of their local community. Experts from KIIS observed a strong emotional connection between respondents and their place of residence. Even among those currently living in the Donetsk region with IDP status, the first thing they mention when meeting someone is where they are from. While the respondents also feel warmly about the region, they do not primarily identify with the Donetsk region themselves.
For people from other regions of Ukraine, the Donetsk region is seen as an industrial area, and the perception of its residents is generally positive. The main reason for this is personal connections with people from Donetsk or having relatives from the region. The most negative perceptions — such as “traitors” or “pro-Russia” — were expressed by focus group participants who are not from Donetsk and do not have relatives or acquaintances there.
The liberation of the region by Ukraine, the complete cessation of hostilities, and the signing of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia are the most important conditions for people to feel safe and decide whether to return to Donetsk or continue living in the region.
During the focus group research, participants noted that complete security is associated exclusively with the end of the war — a complete ceasefire and the signing of official documents.
“Security for the residents of Donetsk region is inextricably linked to the full return of the territories. A “frozen conflict” or a mere ceasefire is not perceived as stability. People want guarantees of their rights, access to the legal system and democratic mechanisms, which are currently either limited or non-existent,” comments Liubov Rakovytsia, head of DII-Ukraine.
Additional factors that encourage people to return are family and wider social ties, as well as conditions for a stable and secure life (energy, heat, water supply, medical care, education, property security, job availability, etc.)
The majority (60%) of IDPs from the Donetsk region plan to return for permanent residence, but mainly after the war ends (36%) or when the area is safe (20%). Only 3% intend to do so in the near future, while 13% are considering returning a few years after the war, when life in the region becomes more stable.
More than a quarter of those surveyed do not plan to return to the Donetsk region, and another 12% have not yet decided on their plans for return.
In the focus group, participants noted that the majority of the population of Donetsk region would be ready to return to their communities. This includes not only the elderly but also young people and families with children. The nostalgia for home is so strong that there is a desire to return to destroyed communities or to other settlements in the region while their own communities and homes are being rebuilt.
Among the current residents of Donetsk region, the majority do not plan to leave and intend to stay in their current place of residence. 14% wish to leave the region, and a fifth (20%) have not yet made up their minds or refused to answer.
The main factors that may force residents of Donetsk region to leave include immediate threats to life and safety due to the war, such as the advancing front line and the threat of occupation, increased shelling, and the loss of their homes.
A relatively small part of the current population of the region would be willing to leave due to better life prospects outside the region or the opportunity to receive assistance as IDPs.
Almost half of the respondents (48%) expressed a desire for their children to live in Donetsk region. The desire for their children to remain in the region is most commonly expressed by current residents of the region (71%). Among those displaced after 2022, 55% share this wish, 36% of those displaced after 2014, and 28% of emigrants abroad.
In the focus group, respondents noted that children also influence their parents’ decisions regarding return. They highlighted cases where children among IDPs or migrants abroad refuse to integrate into their new surroundings and wish to return home.
The vast majority (81%) of respondents support the need to build radically new social, economic, and cultural relationships in Donetsk region, rather than simply restoring what has been destroyed. This view prevails across all target groups.
According to the majority (72%), for the sake of peace and harmony, it is better to forget where the residents of Donetsk region were during the war and focus on thinking about the future together.
The destruction of a significant part of the Donetsk region is viewed by respondents as an impetus for positive change. They believe that it is necessary to reform the outdated, unprofitable industries and sectors of the economy as a whole. The emphasis should be placed on sectors that will not negatively impact the environment.
According to the respondents, during the restoration of the Donetsk region, the government should primarily rely on Ukrainians from all regions who wish to move to Donetsk region, local volunteers, public organizations and activists from Donetsk, and internally displaced persons from Donetsk who have remained in Ukraine.
The participants have a positive outlook on the region’s restoration. However, they understand that this process will be challenging and long-term. They expressed their readiness to take direct part in the rebuilding efforts.
At the same time, the greatest responsibility is placed on the state authorities. This includes the fact that communities do not have their own budgets for reconstruction and the need for the state to introduce programs that encourage the return of residents, as well as attracting people, investors, businesses, and others to the Donetsk region for its rebuilding.
“The results of the survey confirm this: Donetsk region is no longer what we used to imagine. People want change, security, democracy and development. This requires a comprehensive approach to the future reconstruction and integration of the region,” summarizes Liubov Rakovytsia, head of DII-Ukraine.
The study “Vision of Donetsk Region: Views and Attitudes of Residents and Former Inhabitants” was conducted based on the analytical work of the NGO “DII-Ukraine,” with support from Chemonics. The survey was carried out by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) from July 25 to August 6, 2024, using the online questionnaire method (CAWI). Additionally, 8 focus group discussions were held in an online format.
